The Risk Observer®
“The secret of analysis is to perceive something that nobody else perceives.”
John Neuhauser
Financial, Policy, and Cultural Insights.
First published in 1999, The Risk Observer® is a fundamentally-oriented, contrarian minded journal that highlights the early identification of event risk from technology, company, markets, financial, economic, geopolitical, and cultural historical trends.
The Risk Observer® gives straight-forward analyzes of potential opportunistic situations, or the obfuscation and lack thereof.
Subscribers are exclusively institutional investors: hedge funds, private equity firms, banks, pension and endowment funds, and family offices.
The notions prescribed in The Risk Observer® are used by our private investment funds.
MARKET WATCH
March 21, 2011; pg 38
Temporary Game Change
Special Situations Insights
The Risk Observer® /
John M. Neuhauser
“[Japan] must balance the printing of yen and the need to support its manufacturing and financial markets…. However, the…rolling blackouts [will cause] production facilities to lie fallow, with a lack of the vital just-in-time parts. The economies of China, Korea, and Thailand will [manufacture] the supplies demanded by the West…near-term…and Japan might see a reduction of business [stature. But] as in the past, the quality of its products and innovation will be the foundation of its eventual recovery.”
- John M. Neuhauser
“In the long-term, technically…
it’s the fundamentals”.
John M. Neuhauser
Corporate and Macro Fundamentals
Research covers various topics such as equities, fixed income, credit markets, currencies, commodities, and geopolitical themes. Analysis of the macro environment plus specific corporate fundamentals fit under a rubric with techniques that are crucial to understanding intrinsic value. We utilize risk, valuation, betas, and dividends under a proprietary umbrella to identify the potential opportunities or obfuscations behind a corporation’s investment, financing, and dividend decisions. Commentary has a strategic approach on both the short-term and medium-term outlook.
Multi-Markets Technical Analysis
Every choice has implications. Specific, actionable opinions are based on the Risk Observer4 - Model that effectively recognizes inflection points using proprietary econometric models that incorporate economic trends and qualitative judgments to enhance institutional portfolio decisions. The analyzes are the rationale behind the making of my personal decisions.
Catalyst Recognition Approaches
The center of interest is to understand the interrelationships of and catalysts for possible special situations that might lead to specific inflection points whether they are economic, financial, geo-political, or cultural in nature. This allows subscribers to make their own decisions.